Could we Vote yes in the Referendum?
Is the referendum a assured win for the No side, George Trefgarne writing in the Telegraph thinks not, Basing his scenario on the implosion of the Conservative party after the next election defeat Trefgarne suggests a view that I have heard before that Gordon Brown will switch horses after the election and come out fighting for the government, this is if you accept the theory that he is anti-EU in the first place which is not in any way certain. Those of us who do not want this Constitution would be well advised not to place our hopes in the Conservatives being in any position to oppose after the election they seem to be bleeding votes by they day. That is always supposing that they would in any case, because despite the Labour Party promulgating the idea that they are anti, if you look closely are their policies, that argument does not stand up.
Trefgarne hypothesis goes like this….
When it comes to the European Constitution campaign, a Yes victory narrative goes something like this.
February 2005: Spain votes yes to ratifying the constitution (the polls are currently 57 per cent to eight per cent in favour), to be followed by Holland, Portugal and France.
May: Labour wins another big election victory. Tony Blair, with Gordon Brown at his side, announces a historic mission to ratify the constitution.
June: on cue, the Conservative Party erupts into a vicious and prolonged leadership contest. Labour stands back and watches another implosion in the largest political organisation at the heart of the No campaign, which is attempting to launch itself.
July: Luxembourg votes Yes and Britain takes over the presidency of the EU. Brown, hitherto sceptical about European economic performance, announces that “real progress” is being made and that reform in Germany and France is working.
By November, things look pretty serious for the No campaign as it becomes infected with the splits within the Tory party. This referendum is about Europe in or out, says Blair (lying through his teeth). Quite right, replies the Euro-sceptic Right, let’s pull out altogether. At this point more than half the FTSE 100 chief executives, the CBI and Blair’s new friends at the Institute of Directors announce that it would be against Britain’s economic interest to withdraw from the EU.
As the polls start to switch, other arguments are deployed by the pro-constitution lobby, of which the most potent is that the real choice is between ratifying the constitution, with all its disadvantages, or being reduced to a colonial outpost of George W Bush’s America. Scare stories are spread that withdrawing would also mean the end to cheap flights to France and Spain. Then, in March 2006, a referendum results in a Yes vote, by 52 per cent to 48 per cent - and Teflon Tony will have done it again.
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