eurealist.co.uk

no campaign bulletin - 20 May
New cross-party no campaign launched
French and Dutch referendums on a knife-edge
UK government confused on referendum, but other countries won’t take no for an answer
1. New cross-party no campaign launched

The Centre for a Social Europe and the Vote No campaign have joined forces to launch a major new cross-party campaign to prepare for the referendum on the EU Constitution.

The new campaign website lists over 550 business leaders, trade unionists, economists, Greens, Labour MPs and activists who support the no campaign.

The no campaign has also published a new pamphlet which sets out for the first time the cross-party case against the Constitution. It features a range of personalities, including Labour MP Kate Hoey, former UN ambassador Sir John Weston, Green MEP Caroline Lucas and NEXT plc Chief Executive Simon Wolfson. As part of its launch activity, no will be mailing fifty thousand copies of the pamphlet to target voter groups across the UK.

A new poll for the no campaign published this week finds that voters are nearly two-to-one (54 - 30) against the Constitution. It also shows that a majority of the supporters of all the major political parties are against the EU Constitution. Of those who say they plan to vote no to the EU Constitution, 26 percent are Labour voters, 25 percent are Conservatives, 9 percent are Liberal Democrats and 9 percent vote for other parties, showing the cross-party range of support for a no vote.

The no campaign is planning a summer advertising campaign, following the referendum in France.

To visit the website of the new campaign click here: http://www.nocampaign.com

2. French and Dutch referendums on a knife-edge

With the French referendum less than 10 days away, the yes and no campaigns appear to be neck and neck in the opinion polls.

At the end of 2004 the French yes campaign had a 38 percent lead in the polls, and was ahead by 69 percent to 31, but since then support has fallen as the campaign has gone on.

However, the yes campaign in France is now being bolstered by heavy government advertising spending, plus a series of sweeteners handed out by the Government, and it is benefiting from a disproportionate share of TV airtime.

French journalists have found that reliable figures on Government advertising spending are hard to obtain. In January Le Figaro reported that the French government planned to spend 10 million euros promoting the EU Constitution. However, by February the planned budget had swelled and L’Humanité reported that the government would be spending 11 million euros on TV adverts alone. In March, Le Monde reported that the government’s spending would be bolstered by a further 10 million euros from the European Parliament.

The French government has also spent more than a billion euros on sweeteners to boost the chances of a yes vote. On 21 April Le Figaro reported that the government had spent 420 million euros on substantial pay increases for public sector workers to try and boost support. This week President Chirac unveiled plans to give farmers two week holidays and tax breaks worth 740 million euros. The government also managed to get the EU Commission to agree to subsidised and free air travel for residents in French overseas territories, and the government is also pressing the EU for a reduction in VAT on restaurant meals.

The allocation of airtime to the campaigns has been unfair. The official French broadcasting authority, the CSA, has called on French TV channels to rebalance their coverage, after it found that the yes campaign had had enjoyed nearly two thirds of the airtime in the campaign so far (63 compared to 37 percent of the time). This week a delegation of journalists sent a petition signed by almost 15,000 people to the President of the CSA - denouncing the “Yes plugging” by the media. (Le Monde 19 May)

However the bias looks set to continue, as the French Government’s referendum rules allow the ‘yes’ campaign 90 minutes of airtime during the last two weeks of the campaign, compared to only 50 minutes for the ‘no’ side.

French ‘yes’ campaigners are celebrating the Constitution as a French victory, while the UK Government continues to claim that the French see the EU Constitution as a “victory for Britain.”

During the campaign the French government has argued that the EU Constitution will prevent reform of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy. The government’s website states that, “the Constitution protects the CAP. French farmers therefore have every reason to support the Constitution”.

The government also argues that the Constitution will stop Turkey joining the EU. The French government’s website says, “The adoption of the Constitution will make the accession of Turkey very difficult… Turkey’s entry is incompatible with the construction of a political Europe founded on a project of European civilisation.” It argues, “Article 57 of the European Constitution creates the position of a privileged partnership specially aimed at countries such as Turkey which want a strong association with the EU. Saying ‘yes’ to the Constitution will give us the means to say ‘no’ to Turkey.”

This week the new UK Minister for Europe, Douglas Alexander, told Parliament, “across the channel, at the moment, its opponents are arguing that the treaty is too British. in short, too much a model of an Anglo-Saxon European Union.” (Hansard, 18 May)

However, the opposite is true. French yes campaigners have insisted for months that the Constitution represents “Europe à la française,” and more recently Chirac called the Constitution “essentially French”. (Le Figaro, 15 April)

The French Government’s website argues for a yes vote to precisely to avoid what it argues is the British vision of a lighter Europe. It states that Constitution is “the crowning of what one could call the French vision for Europe, against the Anglo-Saxon vision, which is. intergovernmental and sovereignist.”

However, it is not only the French who consider it to be a ‘French’ Constitution. This week Polish President Alexander Kwaznieski said that the Constitution “is considered in Poland to be a French child. A negative French response would be difficult to explain to the Poles.” (AP, 19 May)

Boosted by government funded advertising, sweeteners, and biased media coverage, the French yes campaign may well still win the referendum. But the result - after the plunge of the yes side during the campaign - will still undermine any attempt by the British yes campaign to claim that there is huge enthusiasm for the EU Constitution elsewhere in Europe.

3. UK government confused on referendum, but other countries won’t take no for an answer

The Government’s line on the consequences of a no vote appeared confused this week. New Europe Minister Douglas Alexander gaffed by suggesting that a UK referendum would still take place even if other countries voted no. Jack Straw later said that the Constitution would be abandoned after a no vote, and as a result there would be no referendum.

The EU Constitution can only legally come into force if all 25 EU countries ratify it. However, some EU leaders have already indicated that the referendums scheduled in other countries will go ahead even if the French reject the text.

Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot said at a meeting in Copenhagen, “If France votes no, then other countries must continue the fight for a yes”. (EUObserver, 4 April)

Danish Foreign Affairs Minister Per Stig Moeller has said, “The Danes will go to the polls, whatever the result of the French referendum”, and the Danish Prime Minster has said, “Denmark will give its verdict on the Constitution with complete independence and will not let itself be influenced by France or other countries.”

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker - who currently holds the EU presidency - has said, “The French vote is important, but I don’t think it will be able to stop the ratification procedures underway in the other countries.”

An unnamed Commission official was quoted in Le Figaro saying that a halt on the other countries planned referendums “Is in theory possible, but is politically unlikely”, and an unnamed official from the EU Council of Ministers made the extraordinary claim that abandoning the Constitution after a no vote, “would be prematurely aborting the treaty and showing disregard for other countries’ votes.” (All Le Figaro, 21 April) The pressure to implement the Constitution regardless of a no vote - even from France - suggests that there will be intense pressure on any smaller countries which vote no.

The UK Government wants to avoid a referendum, because it knows that the overwhelming majority of voters oppose giving the EU more power. Some ministers would clearly prefer another country to vote it down, and would then argue for it to be abandoned. But some EU politicians would refuse to take no for an answer. Threats to go ahead anyway, even after a no vote, make a mockery of democracy.

4. Britain in Europe “rebrand” themselves as “Yes”

The pro-euro Britain in Europe campaign announced this week that it had paid branding consultants 5,000 pounds to come up with a new name: “Yes”.

Lucy Powell, campaign director of “Yes”, told the Financial Times, “Yes symbolises positivity and a whole range of emotions. We’re creating a new image for the organisation.”

The move may be an attempt to shake off the campaign’s reputation for gaffes and non-credible spin. However, despite the name change, the campaign is still led by the same people, and is expected to continue to make the same arguments.