eurealist.co.uk

I have been reading and exchanging some views with NM on his blog, Nose Monkey`s EUtopia my blog being almost dormant.

I should say that on many issues I do tend to agree with the views as presented on the blog, until that is it comes to the EU, there I am afraid I tend to part company. It is not that NM is an out and out unthinking Europhile, he is to my mind rather an optimistic sort, who seems to think the EU can be reformed where I see the building blocks and scaffolding of the supra government the EU is fast becoming, NM only sees evidence of the inability of the EU to ever reach that goal. Whereas I do not believe the EU can be reformed because I just do not see any evidence historically or the present that any reform is on the cards anytime in future, NM sees great hope that at some point reform will take place.

His recent post

Cameron, the Tories’ confusing EU politics, and a chance for reform

Questions why David Cameron is still supporting a referendum after the other two parties backed down on the issue.

This is somewhat evidence, of the previously noted, mental ability that many who support the EU have of putting their own thoughts into the minds of others and then being or acting surprised when the others do not follow the forecast chain of events. In NM mind it was obvious that Cameron did not actually want a referendum and only supported one for political reasons. It is therefore inconceivable that the Conservatives should stick to their election promise when offered a chance to renege, hence the inquiry.

But now we can reflect that there must be another reason for Cameron sticking to the referendum promise. One I hasten to add that does not materialise for several paragraphs, (more later) but when we do eventually get there it appears, in the mind of NM at least, that Cameron has a cunning plan. If he succeeds in getting a referendum the likely outcome would be no. But now it is time for Cameron (who by this time has apparently been elected Prime Minster) to put his cunning plan into action, the no vote would enable Cameron to draw out the whole populist process for years with countless follow-up referenda. And it would also provide a handy buffer against the withdrawalists by taking away the Lisbon Treaty’s introduction of procedures by which a member state can quit the EU, meaning he can safely play around without the threat of having to take the EU-bashing to the logical extreme and giving up membership.

Now why would Cameron want to do such a thing, well apparently this would eventually bring about a multi speed or multi tiered EU something hinted at last year, so there you have it the Cameron plan revealed in all its glory.

In the intervening paragraphs NM explores the problems of Cameron not understanding realpolitik because if he did he would “realise that he needs to maintain good relations with as many EU political leaders as he possibly can if he’s going to have any hope of doing deals in Brussels when he becomes Prime Minister.

It’s basic diplomacy - act nice towards people, they’re more likely to accommodate your wishes.”

This apparently means that when we eventually do come to leave the EU we will get a better deal if we are nice to them. Mr Cameron’s plan it seems would “ piss off all the other EU member states no end. Cameron would position himself as the pariah of Europe, pissing everyone off by his obstructionism and stalling EU reform yet further.”

After we have negotiated the thoughts of Mr Camaron NM actually starts to speak to me; he says for the last decade we have been asking the wrong question we should be asking “have we got the right option for the EU” NM is pro EU but not this EU. Well on that last we can agree I am not pro this EU either, as I mentioned before I do not see it changing.

The problem is that no one with any influence is advocating an approach which would bring about the changes everyone is quite happy to go along with EU flow.

I strikes me that if they do not go with the flow then they are likely to piss off the rest of the EU and thus make our exit that much harder. It also seems to be the case that the only way to reform the EU would be to go directly against the flow, after all the flow is towards further political integration. I do not see how we are ever going to go against the flow and not at the same time piss off the rest of the EU.

This introduces a further point; if by going against the EU flow we piss off all the others, then obviously all the others do not want to go in our direction, otherwise equally obviously we would not be pissing them off, so going against the flow will be necessary to create reform of the EU but at the same time will make it harder to achieve that reform.

To be honest it looks very much like a catch 22 situation on top of wanting to have ones cake and eating it.

Would it not be simpler to decide what we want from the EU see if the Lisbon Treaty works towards that objective and accept or reject it on those terms. Then the EU can decide whether to work towards our objectives or ask us to leave.

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EU Constitution, Political Elites, Political Parties, Tories, David Cameron, referendum,
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